In sports betting we constantly talk about let downs and hang overs well South Carolina defeated Georgia last week and arguably have a more important game against Florida next week because it's a division game. Now they are clearly not looking a head but this is a big hang over spot for the Gamecocks after playing a great game against Georgia.
Georgia had the reputation of being a top defense as they were last year, but I claim frauds! Georgia just gave up 79 points in two weeks so looking at South Carolina putting up 35 now does not look overly impressive. LSU's defense is a new level. LSU is ranked 2nd in the nation allowing just 207 yards/game behind only Alabama. South Carolina played two subpar defenses on the road in Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now they will go into a very challenging environment against a very angry team.
Bottom line both teams can run the game and prefer to run the ball. In fact they are both in the top 10 in rushing play percentage and South Carolina runs the ball more on the road 70% of the time in fact while LSU runs the ball 65% at home. Who can run the ball better is going to play a huge factor in this game and right now there is no question that is LSU. For one LSU has 3 guys with 40+ carries and are averaging over 5 yards per carry. They also have Spencer Ware who is just under 5 yards per carry. This is the deepest group of running backs in the county. Yeah they do not have Marcus Lattimore, but that's a one man show despite Connor Shaw being able to run quite a bit. Shaw will not be able to run though against LSU's front 7 and if he does so it will be at a huge risk of injury. LSU is 25th overall with 5.9 ypc while South Carolina is 56th with a 4.4 ypc. They only average 4.3 ypc on the road and the two teams they faced were ranked 92nd, and 64th in run defense and now they face LSU who is 4th allowing just 2.3 ypc and 1.7 ypc at home.
Ok so what happens when the running games fail because that is likely to happen in this game featuring two of the best defensive lines with NFL talent for both teams. It's going to be the team that's able to protect their QB better. Both teams are in the top 10 in sack % on defense to nobody's surprise while both teams are in the bottom half LSU 100TH, and South Carolina 109th in protecting their QB's. However the difference is the home team. LSU is only allowing 6.85% of their drop backs to result in a sack at home while South Carolina is 15%. No wonder South Carolina runs the ball 70% of the time on the road. LSU's Sam Montgomery could have a field day if he's allowed to. South Carolina was sacked 15% of their drop backs against Vanderbilt and Kentucky? Don't forget South Carolina has struggled converting third downs on the road converting 38% and that was against 3rd down defenses ranked 116 and 63rd. LSU is ranked 11th holding opponents to 29.58% conversions, 26.67% at home.
